Monday, November 3, 2008

Final Polls and Predictions

The last polls and predictions:

Polly Vote: Obama by 6.0% with 353.72 electoral votes.
FiveThirtyEight: Obama by 6.1% with 348.6 electoral votes.
Princeton Election Consortium: Obama by 6.28% with 353 electoral votes.

Real Clear Politics: Obama by 7.6% with 338 electoral votes.

Obama 278, McCain 132, Toss Ups 128
No Toss Ups: Obama 338, McCain 200

Solid Obama Leaning Obama Solid McCain Leaning McCain Toss Up
StateObama (D)McCain (R)RCP AverageRCP Status20042000
Florida (27)49.047.2Obama +1.8 Toss UpBush +5.0Bush +0.1
North Carolina (15)48.048.4McCain +0.4 Toss UpBush +12.4Bush +12.8
Missouri (11)47.848.5McCain +0.7 Toss UpBush +7.2Bush +3.3
Indiana (11)46.447.8McCain +1.4 Toss UpBush +20.7Bush +15.7
Georgia (15)45.849.8McCain +4.0 Toss UpBush +16.6Bush +11.7
Montana (3)45.048.8McCain +3.8 Toss UpBush +20.5Bush +25.0
Arizona (10)45.849.3McCain +3.5 Toss UpBush +10.5Bush +6.3
Virginia (13)50.245.8Obama +4.4 Toss UpBush +8.2Bush +8.1
Ohio (20)48.846.3Obama +2.5 Toss UpBush +2.1Bush +3.5
Colorado (9)50.845.3Obama +5.5 LeaningBush +4.7Bush +8.4
Nevada (5)50.043.2Obama +6.8 LeaningBush +2.6Bush +3.5
Pennsylvania (21)51.043.7Obama +7.3 LeaningKerry +2.5Gore +4.2
New Mexico (5)50.343.0Obama +7.3 LeaningBush +0.7Gore +0.1
South Dakota (3)42.050.3McCain +8.3 LeaningBush +21.5Bush +22.7
West Virginia (5)42.451.4McCain +9.0 LeaningBush +12.9Bush +6.3
Arkansas (6)43.052.3McCain +9.3 LeaningBush +9.7Bush +5.4
Minnesota (10)51.641.8Obama +9.8 LeaningKerry +3.5Gore +2.4
New Hampshire (4)52.842.2Obama +10.6 SolidKerry +1.3Bush +1.3
South Carolina (8)43.053.0McCain +10.0 SolidBush +17.1Bush +15.9
Wisconsin (10)52.841.8Obama +11.0 SolidKerry +0.4Gore +0.2
Mississippi (6)39.350.7McCain +11.4 SolidBush +19.6Bush +16.9
Iowa (7)54.038.7Obama +15.3 SolidBush +0.7Gore +0.3
New Jersey (15)54.539.0Obama +15.5 SolidKerry +6.7Gore +15.8
Oregon (7)55.339.7Obama +15.6 SolidKerry +4.2Gore +0.5
Washington (11)53.740.7Obama +13.0 SolidKerry +8.2Gore +5.5
Michigan (17)52.539.5Obama +13.0 SolidKerry +3.4Gore +5.2
Maine (4)54.438.8Obama +15.6 SolidKerry +9.0Gore +5.1
Texas (34)40.553.5McCain +13.0 SolidBush +22.9Bush +21.3
California (55)58.734.3Obama +24.4 SolidKerry +9.9Gore +11.8
Massachusetts (12)57.035.7Obama +21.3 SolidKerry +25.1Gore +27.3
Kentucky (8)41.054.5McCain +13.5 SolidBush +19.9Bush +15.1
Alaska (3)40.756.0McCain +15.3 SolidBush +25.6Bush +30.9
Connecticut (7)55.336.0Obama +19.3 SolidKerry +10.3Gore +17.5
New York (31)62.032.3Obama +29.7 SolidKerry +18.3Gore +25.0
Tennessee (11)38.852.8McCain +14.0 SolidBush +14.3Bush +3.9
Alabama (9)33.556.8McCain +23.3 SolidBush +25.7Bush +14.9
Illinois (21)59.034.3Obama +24.7 SolidKerry +10.4Gore +12.0

Rasmussen Report: Obama by 6.0% with at least 313 electoral votes.

State By State Balance of Power

Safe
GOP
(65)

Likely
GOP
(95)

Leans
GOP
(0)

Toss
Up
(92)

Leans
Dem
(26)

Likely
Dem
(114)

Safe
Dem
(146)

AK (3)

AR (6)


FL (27)

CO (9)

CT (7)

CA (55)

AL (9)

AZ (10)


IN (11)

NH (4)

IA (7)

DE (3)

ID (4)

GA (15)


MO (11)

VA (13)

ME (4)

DC (3)

KS (6)

MS (6)


MT (3)


MI (17)

HI (4)

KY (8)

NE (5)


NC (15)


MN (10)

IL (21)

LA (9)

ND (3)


NV (5)


NJ (15)

MD (10)

OK (7)

SC (8)


OH (20)


NM (5)

MA (12)

TN (11)

SD (3)




OR (7)

NY (31)

UT (5)

TX (34)




PA (21)

RI (4)

WY (3)

WV (5)




WA (11)

VT (3)






WI (10)


www.rasmussenreports.com



Key Swing States in the 2008 Elections

Colorado: Obama by 5.5%
Florida: Obama by 1.8%
Indiana: McCain by 1.4%
Missouri: McCain by 0.7%
Nevada: Obama by 6.8%
New Hampshire: Obama by 12.5%
North Carolina: Obama by 0.4%
Ohio: Obama by 2.5%
Pennsylvania: Obama by 7.3%
Virginia.: Obama by 4.4%

UPDATED November 4, 2008
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